Deforestation and forest degradation continue to progress in Ecuador, especially in the Amazon Basin.

Scenario analysis was used to assess changes in land use conditions over the period 2016 - 2030 at the canton-level (area: 2,146 km²) as a combination of explorative with policy-screening components. Contrary to expectations, scenario NATIONAL^(+)POLICY, which assumes net zero deforestation by 2030, resulted in a high degree of fragmentation of existing forest core areas in contrast to its carbon sink potential (27,971 Mg ha^-1), which performed best among all scenarios.

The study shows a mismatch between future LULC changes and the expected impacts of Ecuadorian land use policies in 2030. The simulated variability of forest change patterns (deforestation, reforestation) and farming trajectories (diversification, intensification, rotation) further suggests to foster more cross-sectoral policy approaches that acknowledges the hybrid role of local stakeholders who can be farmers and forest users at the same time.

• Lippe M, Rummel L, Günter S (2022) Simulating land use and land cover change under contrasting levels of policy enforcement and its spatially-explicit impact on tropical forest landscapes in Ecuador. Land Use Pol 119:106207, DOI:10.1016/j.landusepol.2022.106207