Drought risks of forests under climate change

Background and Objective

Summer droughts in the years 2003, 2013, 2015, 2018 and 2019 illustrate that the frequency and intensity of catastrophic events are likely to increase significantly due to climate change. A high-resolution water balance model is to be developed as part of the TroWaK project for Germany-wide real-time assessment of water availability and drought risks in forest areas. The results of the water balance model form the basis 
for new methods to estimate the risk of abiotic and biotic consequential damage in drought-affected forests.

Approach

The Thünen Institute is working together with the NW-FVA and the DWD on the further development and parameterization of the LWF-Brook90 model (water balance model) for various tree species. Therefor forest monitoring and inventory data are used. With the water balance modelling, tree-specific abiotic stress factors (growth and vitality losses and mortality) are derived. This contributes to maps of the current soil moisture situation and the current risk of damage to forest stands.