Further development of the Thünen model network - Farm models

Background and Objective

The related complex analyses require the interactive application of models for different decision levels (micro, meso and macro level). The Thünen model network connects and further develops farm, regional and sector partial and general equilibrium models for the joint application for policy impact assessments. The further development of the model network is of central importance in order to continually and promptly carry out quantitative assessments of the policy impacts while ensuring high scientific quality.

Approach

The models of the network are closely linked to other research carried out at the institute as well as to national and international networks. Projects in the institute result in new model approaches for the network and the models of the network support the success of other institute research projects. The resources of the model network are supplemented by third party funding, which are used to study relevant future topics and developments and enable the model network to commence time intensive model developments early. We continuously update the model data bases and fine-tune the co-ordination between models, e.g. through the establishment of a common baseline.

Data and Methods

The Thünen-Institute of Farm Economics maintains the models TIPI-CAL and TYPICROP of the agri benchmark network, as well as FARMIS.
FARMIS is a mathematical programming model for farm groups which is based on information from the national farm accountancy data network.

Data from typical farms of the agri benchmark network provide the basis for farm-level analyses with the production and accounting models TIPI-CAL and TYPICROP.

Preliminary Results

The current version of FARMIS is based on a three-year average of farm accountancy data for the period 2009/10 to 2011/12. Within the DFG-research group SIAG we are currently improving the modelling of structural change in agriculture. A first application on dairy market reform scenarios highlights the diverging impacts these may have on the developments of the number of dairy farms of different size or regions, and their income and output (Offermann and Margarian, 2014). At present, model development focuses on a more differentiated representation of adjustments of production intensity and technology to changing framework conditions.

In 2014 and 2015, the currently existing different model technologies of the agri benchmark network (Excel, Access, JSON) will be merged to a single online data collection tool (data model). The calculations will in future be implemented in GAMS (process model) to benefit from synergies with FARMIS and other model applications within the institute. The approach will be extended by incorporating data on the environment (nutrients, energy, water, greenhouse gas emissions), farm households and animal welfare. We also intend to enlarge the network to other countries, particularly to developing countries and emerging economies.