Climate Change and Future Marine Ecosystem Services and Biodiversity (FutureMARES)

Background and Objective

FutureMARES is an EU-funded research project that focused on the complex interactions between climate change, marine biodiversity, and the marine ecosystem services. Leading research organizations, NGOs, and public institutions worldwide collaborated across five case study regions to develop and implement nature-based solutions (NBS). The primary goal: to promote the sustainable use of marine resources and mitigate the impacts of climate change.

Our objective was to develop NBS that are both socially and economically viable. These solutions aim not only to support climate change adaptation but also to safeguard future biodiversity and ecosystem functions. Drawing on scientific findings, we provide policymakers with well-founded recommendations to effectively implement NBS and use the ecosystem services they offer.

Approach

To make realistic predictions and identify potential conflicts of interest, we utilized the established bio-economic model FishRent. In collaboration with international partners and through intensive data research, we integrated the latest scientific climate projections into our simulations.

Key Innovations:

• Integration of Offshore Wind Energy Data: For the first time, we systematically incorporated data on offshore wind energy and marine protected areas into the FishRent model.

• Fine-Scale Temperature Projections: In partnership with models developed at the Thünen Institute, we linked temperature changes with shifts in species distribution to precisely assess the impact on fisheries.

Our Research Questions

The project will especially look at three types of Nature-based Solutions (NBS) to mitigate and adapt to Climate Change in e.g. European waters and other marine and transitional waters.

NBS1:Effective Restoration Strategies of habitat-forming species that can act as ‘climate rescuers’. Targeted habitats include seagrasses, salt marshes, mangroves, kelp forests, coral reefs and shellfish reefs, which can buffer species from negative effects of warming and ocean acidification. These habitats are also key nursery areas supporting biodiversity (including commercially important species), provide natural refuges and feeding grounds, improve seawater quality, reduce coastal erosion and flood risk, function as carbon sinks (regulating climate), and sustain tourism and cultural activities.

NBS2: Effective Conservation Strategies explicitly considering the range of impacts of CC and other hazards on habitat suitability for flora and fauna. Strategies explored include preserving the integrity of food webs and sustaining population connectivity across networks of climate refugia (where biogeophysical conditions are stable or changing slowly²² over multiple spatial and temporal scales (i.e. from site-specific marine protected areas to conservation strategies for highly-migratory charismatic megafauna).

NBS3:Sustainable Harvesting of seafood from fisheries and aquaculture that is flexible, adaptive and managed on a whole ecosystem basis. Ongoing impacts of CC require an ecosystem-based management and multispecies approach²³that can adapt to shifts in species’ productivity, distribution and interactions²⁴. High-level EU policy advisors have highlighted culture and capture at lower trophic levels as critical for sustainable seafood production²⁵ (linking with NBS1). Strategies must also account for potential trade-offs among multiple users, economic sectors and the ecosystem services such as cultural heritage for effective Blue Growth linking with spatial planning in NBS2. Therefore, the three NBSs do not act in isolation but rather exert synergetic positive effects.

The main research question for the Thünen-Institute will be the sustainable harvesting of living marine resources in the North Sea taking restoration and conservation strategies into account (e.g. select best suitable habitats to improve preservation of habitats and stocks under climate change impacts).

Results

Using the bio-economic model FishRent, we simulated the impact of NBS in the North Sea region and tested their effectiveness under various climate scenarios. A particular focus was placed on the socio-economic consequences of climate change, such as rising fuel prices and evolving management strategies.

Key Findings:

• Profitability Despite Challenges: Our research indicates that North Sea demersal fisheries can remain economically viable even under strict conservation measures and increased use of renewable offshore energy.

• Regional Variations: Profitability, however, varies significantly by region, depending on the location of fishing grounds and the cost structure of the fleet.

Links and Downloads

Watch the FutureMARES synthesis video! What are the main results of FutureMARES? What impact does our project have on politics? Find out in our video.