Future scenarios to promote the sustainable use of marine areas

Lead Institute SF Institute of Sea Fisheries

Involved Institutes OF Institute of Baltic Sea Fisheries

CoastalFutures II – Model-Based Recommendations and Future Scenarios for Fisheries, Offshore Wind Farms, and Nature Conservation

In the project "CoastalFutures Phase II", we are building upon the innovative coastal modelling system developed in Phase I to elaborate science-based recommendations for the sustainable management of coastal ecosystems. We are analysing future usage scenarios and evaluating potential management options.

Background and Objective

The combination of climate change and increasing human activity in the oceans is presenting us with a range of new challenges and pushing the limits of traditional management approaches to the sustainable use of marine resources. Current policy developments focus on the intense competition for space for offshore energy production, nature conservation and fisheries - all in the context of climate change. The joint project "CoastalFutures - Phase I" has developed models and scenarios for the North Sea and the Baltic Sea, taking into account both local usage forms and regional climate changes. In Phase II, the cumulative effects of climate change and human use on ecosystems will be investigated and projected into the future. The focus will be on the further development of methods to assess the cumulative effects of different anthropogenic stressors on marine ecosystems. Our aim is specifically address current and future marine management and policy challenges, such as increasing human activities and conflicts between conservation and use.

The main objectives of the project are:

to investigate traditional and potentially new commercial fishery resources under different climate scenarios in order to assess future resource availability and provide targeted support for fisheries management;
to investigate the influence of climate change and human activities, such as offshore wind energy, on the recruitment success of selected fish species in the North Sea;
to model and to analyse the combined effects of offshore wind energy and climate change on marine protected areas, including evaluation of the effectiveness of existing protection measures and development of new protection strategies;
to investigate economic adaptation strategies for fisheries in a changing ecological (e.g. new fish species) and social environment (e.g. spatial competition for use);
to assess the future prospects of commercial fisheries in Germany;
to promote various dialogue formats with marine stakeholders in Germany and Europe;
to develop tools and data products (e.g. web-based information systems, open access data, fact sheets, lecture series) to support management, policy advice, science, education and public communication.

Target Group

Science, politics, public

Approach

In this second phase of the project, the focus is increasingly on marine organisms that are currently present in European waters, or may become present in the future, and that provide important ecosystem services, such as commercial fisheries. We are using the modelling framework from the first phase of the 'SustainMare' mission projects to predict medium- and long-term changes in marine fauna as a result of climate change. A particular focus is on the future distribution of pelagic fish species and new species with potential for commercial fisheries.

In addition, we are working with other project partners to assess the impact of offshore renewable energy, climate change and various management measures on commercial fishes. We are quantifying changes in biomass and abundance of these species in wind farms and protected areas under the influence of climate change. We are also investigating the extent to which offshore wind farms and marine protected areas in the German Bight can serve as additional spawning grounds for commercial fish species and thus contribute to the recruitment success of selected species.

We further investigate the adaptability of the fisheries sector to different changes by (1) compiling and comparing future visions of the fisheries sector from different sources, (2) investigating the options for action of fishermen using an existing survey dataset and (3) typifying the structural dependencies between coastal locations, ports and fishermen.

Our Research Questions

How will traditional and new commercial fishery resources respond to different climate scenarios? How will these changes affect fisheries management and sustainability?
How can fisheries adapt to environmental changes? What are the challenges and opportunities for the future of commercial fisheries in the North Sea?
How do climate change and offshore wind energy affect the recruitment of selected fish species in the North Sea?
What are the interactions between offshore wind energy and climate change and what are the implications for MPAs?
Are existing conservation measures sufficient or are new conservation strategies needed?