Germany's agriculture until 2034
Haß, Marlen | 27.11.2024
Every two years, the Thünen Modelling Network produces a projection for the expected development in the agricultural sector over the next ten years. Below you will find selected results from the current Thünen-Baseline 2024-2034.
The Thünen-Baseline is published every two years and shows the expected developments in the German agricultural sector over the next ten years. The baseline is based on certain assumptions regarding the development of external drivers, such as the level of global economic growth. Furthermore, the Thünen-Baseline assumes that changes in agricultural policy that have already been decided will be implemented and that the current policy will be maintained. The Thünen-Baseline is therefore not a forecast, but describes a reference scenario that can be used to analyse the effects of alternative policies and developments.
The Thünen-Baseline presents results for agricultural trade, prices, demand, production, income and environmental impacts. Data and information available up to February 2024 were taken into account.
Less grain, more oilseeds, less meat
The assessments mainly focus on the development of the German agricultural sector compared to the average for the years 2020 to 2022. The results in detail:
Arable farming:
Less grain will be grown by 2034. This can be attributed to changes in price relations and less agricultural land being utilised. In contrast, the cultivation of oilseeds will increase by 2034.
Milk production:
Dairy market prices will develop favourably and milk production will continue to increase. This will lead to a slight increase in milk deliveries. Dairy herds will continue to decline.
Meat production:
Higher environmental and animal welfare standards mean that investments in the meat sector are expected to decline. Less money will flow into pig farming in particular, which will lead to a decline in livestock numbers and meat production.
Development of land use, livestock numbers and production in German agriculture for selected production methods, percentage change in 2034 compared to Ø 2020-2022
Income:
Average real, i.e. inflation-adjusted, income declines over the course of the projection period. As farms have been able to achieve exceptionally high profits in the past two years, real income in 2034 will nevertheless be at the average level of the past ten years.
Agricultural trade:
The EU can further expand its share of global trade in processed agricultural and food products. North America, Africa and the EU's neighbouring countries countries become important export destinations. Exports to Asia, on the other hand, are declining.
Environment:
The nitrogen surplus and the use of pesticides will decrease by 2034, with the main drivers of this development being less fermentation residue from biogas production and a reduction in the use of mineral fertilisers. Less land will be used for agriculture and more land will be non-productive, i.e. prioritised for environmental protection and nature conservation.
CO2 taxation
In the current Thünen-Baseline, the scientists also analysed the effects of a Europe-wide CO2 tax on German agriculture. The results show that a CO2 tax in agriculture has a particularly strong impact on the production of animal products, especially beef, as well as on feed and fermentation substrates. At the same time, a CO2 tax rate of 100 euros per tonne of CO2 equivalent could reduce greenhouse gas emissions from German agriculture by 16 per cent.
Download Service
The latest Thünen Baseline report as well as selected figures on the assumptions (section 2) and results (section 3) of the Thünen-Baseline 20222-2032 are available for download:
Publications:
Haß M, Banse M, Eysholdt M, Gocht A, Laquai V, Offermann F, Pelikan J, Rieger J, Stepanyan D, Sturm V, Zinnbauer M (2024)
Thünen-Baseline 2024 – 2034: Agrarökonomische Projektionen für Deutschland.
Braunschweig: Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut, 109 p, Thünen Rep 117, DOI:10.3220/REP1728479310000
Haß M, Deblitz C, Freund F, Kreins P, Laquai V, Offermann F, Pelikan J, Sturm V, Wegmann J, Witte T de, Wüstemann F, Zinnbauer M (2022) Thünen-Baseline 2022 - 2032: Agrarökonomische Projektionen für Deutschland.
Braunschweig: Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut, 126 p, Thünen Rep 100, DOI:10.3220/REP1667811151000
Haß M, Banse M, Deblitz C, Freund F, Geibel I, Gocht A, Kreins P, Laquai V, Offermann F, Osterburg B, Pelikan J, Rieger J, Rösemann C, Salamon P, Zinnbauer M, Zirngibl ME (2020) Thünen-Baseline 2020 – 2030: Agrarökonomische Projektionen für Deutschland. Braunschweig: Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut, 146 p, Thünen Rep 82, DOI:10.3220/REP1601889632000
Offermann F, Banse M, Freund F, Haß M, Kreins P, Laquai V, Osterburg B, Pelikan J, Rösemann C, Salamon P (2018) Thünen-Baseline 2017 - 2027: Agrarökonomische Projektionen für Deutschland. Braunschweig: Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut, 116 p, Thünen Rep 56, DOI:10.3220/REP1516952942000
Offermann F, Banse M, Deblitz C, Gocht A,Gonzalez-Mellado A, Kreins P, Marquardt S, Osterburg B, Janine Pelikan J, Rösemann C, Salamon P, Sanders J (2016) Thünen-Baseline 2015 – 2025: Agrarökonomische Projektionen für Deutschland.
Braunschweig: Thünen-Institut, Thünen Rep 40
Offermann F, Banse M, Deblitz C, Gocht A, Gonzalez Mellado AA, Kreins P, Marquardt S, Osterburg B, Pelikan J, Rösemann C, Salamon P, Sanders J (2016) Thünen Baseline 2015 - 2025: Agri-economic projections for Germany.
Landbauforsch Appl Agric Forestry Res 66(4):240-257
Offermann F, Banse M, Deblitz C, Gocht A, Gonzalez Mellado AA, Kreins P, Marquardt S, Osterburg B, Pelikan J, Rösemann C, Salamon P, Sanders J (2016) Thünen-Baseline 2015-2025: Agrarökonomische Projektionen für Deutschland.
Braunschweig: Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut, 116 p, Thünen Rep 40
Offermann F, Deblitz C, Golla B, Gömann H, Haenel H-D, Kleinhanß W, Kreins P, Ledebur O von, Osterburg B, Pelikan J, Röder N, Rösemann C, Salamon P, Sanders J, Witte T de (2014) Thünen-Baseline 2013-2023: Agrarökonomische Projektionen für Deutschland.
Braunschweig: Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut, 112 p, Thünen Rep 19
Offermann F, Deblitz C, Golla B, Gömann H, Haenel H-D, Kleinhanß W, Kreins P, Ledebur O von, Osterburg B, Pelikan J, Röder N, Rösemann C, Salamon P, Sanders J, Witte T de (2014) Thünen-Baseline 2013-2023: Agri-economic projections for Germany.
Landbauforsch Appl Agric Forestry Res 64(1):1-16
Offermann F, Banse M, Ehrmann M, Gocht A, Gömann H, Haenel H-D, Kleinhanß W, Kreins P, Ledebur O von, Osterburg B, Pelikan J, Rösemann C, Salamon P, Sanders J (2012) vTI-Baseline 2011-2021: agrarökonomische Projektionen für Deutschland.
Braunschweig: vTI, 82 p, Landbauforsch SH 355
Offermann F, Banse M, Ehrmann M, Gocht A, Gömann H, Haenel H-D, Kleinhanß W, Kreins P, Ledebur O von, Osterburg B, Pelikan J, Rösemann C, Salamon P, Sanders J (2012) vTI-Baseline 2011-2021: Agri-economic projections for Germany.
Braunschweig: vTI, VI, 78 p, Landbauforsch SH 358
Offermann F, Gömann H, Kleinhanß W, Kreins P, Ledebur O von, Osterburg B, Pelikan J, Salamon P, Sanders J (2010) vTI-Baseline 2009 - 2019: Agrarökonomische Projektionen für Deutschland.
Braunschweig: vTI, 88 p, Landbauforsch SH 333
Offermann F, Gömann H, Kreins P, Ledebur O von, Pelikan J, Salamon P, Sanders J (2010) vTI-Baseline 2009 to 2019: Agri-economic projections for Germany.
Landbauforsch 60(3):157-172
Offermann F, Brockmeier M, Gömann H, Kleinhanß W, Kreins P, Ledebur O von, Osterburg B, Pelikan J, Salamon P (2009) vTI-Baseline 2008.
Braunschweig: vTI, 50 p, Landbauforsch SH 325
