The Thünen-Baseline is not a forecast of the future. Rather, it describes expected developments should the current agricultural policy be continued in accordance with specific assumptions about the development of exogenous influences.
The Thünen-Baseline describes the expected developments of agricultural markets under given macro-economic conditions assuming no change in the current policy framework. Projections are based on the data and information available in spring 2022. The effects of the Russian war against Ukraine are not taken into account. The report includes projection results on agricultural trade, prices, demand, production, income and environmental effects. The presentation of the results focuses mainly on the developments of the German agricultural sector up to the year 2032 compared to the average of the base period 2018-2020.
In the crop sector, results show that oilseed cultivation is likely to be expanded by 2032. This is because the oilseed sector becomes more competitive relative to grains driven by a stronger increase in yields as well as prices.
In the meat sector, the decline in production observed in recent years due to higher environmental and animal welfare standards as well as changing dietary habits is expected to continue, especially for pork, while poultry production will continue to grow slightly until 2032.
Moreover, favorable price developments on the milk market combined with a furtherincrease in milk yield are likely to result in a moderate increase in milk deliveries over the projection period.
The average real income of agricultural farms is expected to decline. In 2032 the real income of agricultural farms is likely to be significantly below the average level observed over the last ten years.
Download Service
The latest Thünen Baseline report as well as selected figures on the assumptions (section 2) and results (section 3) of the Thünen-Baseline 20222-2032 are available for download:
Publications:
Haß M, Deblitz C, Freund F, Kreins P, Laquai V, Offermann F, Pelikan J, Sturm V, Wegmann J, Witte T de, Wüstemann F, Zinnbauer M (2022) Thünen-Baseline 2022 - 2032: Agrarökonomische Projektionen für Deutschland.
Braunschweig: Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut, 126 p, Thünen Rep 100, DOI:10.3220/REP1667811151000
Haß M, Banse M, Deblitz C, Freund F, Geibel I, Gocht A, Kreins P, Laquai V, Offermann F, Osterburg B, Pelikan J, Rieger J, Rösemann C, Salamon P, Zinnbauer M, Zirngibl ME (2020) Thünen-Baseline 2020 – 2030: Agrarökonomische Projektionen für Deutschland. Braunschweig: Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut, 146 p, Thünen Rep 82, DOI:10.3220/REP1601889632000
Offermann F, Banse M, Freund F, Haß M, Kreins P, Laquai V, Osterburg B, Pelikan J, Rösemann C, Salamon P (2018) Thünen-Baseline 2017 - 2027: Agrarökonomische Projektionen für Deutschland. Braunschweig: Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut, 116 p, Thünen Rep 56, DOI:10.3220/REP1516952942000
Offermann F, Banse M, Deblitz C, Gocht A,Gonzalez-Mellado A, Kreins P, Marquardt S, Osterburg B, Janine Pelikan J, Rösemann C, Salamon P, Sanders J (2016) Thünen-Baseline 2015 – 2025: Agrarökonomische Projektionen für Deutschland.
Braunschweig: Thünen-Institut, Thünen Rep 40
Offermann F, Banse M, Deblitz C, Gocht A, Gonzalez Mellado AA, Kreins P, Marquardt S, Osterburg B, Pelikan J, Rösemann C, Salamon P, Sanders J (2016) Thünen Baseline 2015 - 2025: Agri-economic projections for Germany.
Landbauforsch Appl Agric Forestry Res 66(4):240-257
Offermann F, Banse M, Deblitz C, Gocht A, Gonzalez Mellado AA, Kreins P, Marquardt S, Osterburg B, Pelikan J, Rösemann C, Salamon P, Sanders J (2016) Thünen-Baseline 2015-2025: Agrarökonomische Projektionen für Deutschland.
Braunschweig: Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut, 116 p, Thünen Rep 40
Offermann F, Deblitz C, Golla B, Gömann H, Haenel H-D, Kleinhanß W, Kreins P, Ledebur O von, Osterburg B, Pelikan J, Röder N, Rösemann C, Salamon P, Sanders J, Witte T de (2014) Thünen-Baseline 2013-2023: Agrarökonomische Projektionen für Deutschland.
Braunschweig: Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut, 112 p, Thünen Rep 19
Offermann F, Deblitz C, Golla B, Gömann H, Haenel H-D, Kleinhanß W, Kreins P, Ledebur O von, Osterburg B, Pelikan J, Röder N, Rösemann C, Salamon P, Sanders J, Witte T de (2014) Thünen-Baseline 2013-2023: Agri-economic projections for Germany.
Landbauforsch Appl Agric Forestry Res 64(1):1-16
Offermann F, Banse M, Ehrmann M, Gocht A, Gömann H, Haenel H-D, Kleinhanß W, Kreins P, Ledebur O von, Osterburg B, Pelikan J, Rösemann C, Salamon P, Sanders J (2012) vTI-Baseline 2011-2021: agrarökonomische Projektionen für Deutschland.
Braunschweig: vTI, 82 p, Landbauforsch SH 355
Offermann F, Banse M, Ehrmann M, Gocht A, Gömann H, Haenel H-D, Kleinhanß W, Kreins P, Ledebur O von, Osterburg B, Pelikan J, Rösemann C, Salamon P, Sanders J (2012) vTI-Baseline 2011-2021: Agri-economic projections for Germany.
Braunschweig: vTI, VI, 78 p, Landbauforsch SH 358
Offermann F, Gömann H, Kleinhanß W, Kreins P, Ledebur O von, Osterburg B, Pelikan J, Salamon P, Sanders J (2010) vTI-Baseline 2009 - 2019: Agrarökonomische Projektionen für Deutschland.
Braunschweig: vTI, 88 p, Landbauforsch SH 333
Offermann F, Gömann H, Kreins P, Ledebur O von, Pelikan J, Salamon P, Sanders J (2010) vTI-Baseline 2009 to 2019: Agri-economic projections for Germany.
Landbauforsch 60(3):157-172
Offermann F, Brockmeier M, Gömann H, Kleinhanß W, Kreins P, Ledebur O von, Osterburg B, Pelikan J, Salamon P (2009) vTI-Baseline 2008.
Braunschweig: vTI, 50 p, Landbauforsch SH 325
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