Is a fish finger crisis looming?

Alaska pollock is a scarce commodity on the world market, although it is the white fish species with the highest yield in the world. Besides Russia, only U.S. fisheries produce comparable quantities. However, these are sold by long-term supply contracts and cannot substitute for a shortfall in Russian supplies. In addition, quotas of Alaska pollock from the western Bering Sea and the Gulf of Alaska (FAO67) have been reduced by almost 20% for 2022 in order to ensure continued sustainable utilisation.
 

Substitute wanted

The Russian Alaska Pollack fisheries are MSC certified, as are the American ones. However, it is expected that this sustainability certificate will be suspended for most Russian fisheries within a year because annual audits can no longer be carried out under the current conditions. This will become a problem for retailers who only want to sell MSC-certified goods. The import ban on Russian seafood announced by EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on April 5, 2022, on the other hand - contrary to agency reports - does not initially include fish fillets, but mainly crabs and caviar.

Therefore, the impact of the sanctions against Russia on the production of fish fingers and similar products will be minor – but that could change quickly. The industry is therefore considering compensating for the potential shortfall with other types of fish. In the past, pangasius, a freshwater fish produced in aquaculture, was used for this purpose.

A complete compensation will not be possible in the short term. An import ban or even a drastic increase in import tariffs on Russian fish, as has been implemented in the UK, would therefore have a significant impact on the supply and prices of the products as well as on jobs in the German fish processing industry.
Fish from Russian sources no longer purchased by the EU would likely be taken up easily in other regions of the world, such as Asia, albeit - due to the then missing MSC label - at a price discount.

Russia has also announced plans to unilaterally increase quotas for the Alaska pollock fishery in the western Bering Sea, which would then have a significant impact on the sustainable exploitation of this stock. In the short term, therefore, Russia could attempt to compensate for the loss of revenue due to the elimination of the western market by increasing catches.
 

Other effects of the war on the German fishing industry

As in most other sectors of the economy, the sharp rise in the price of fuel in particular is causing major problems for fisheries. This is particularly true for energy-intensive fisheries, i.e. bottom trawl fisheries, e.g. for flatfish or North Sea shrimp. As a result, many smaller businesses have ceased operations, at least temporarily. The German Federal government's relief program, which is intended to make energy cheaper primarily through tax cuts, is not effective because fuel for fishing is tax-exempt anyway. However, the EU has now launched an aid program that provides subsidies for fishing companies that have fallen into economic difficulties as a result of the war.

For the supply of the German market, own production by coastal fisheries does not play such an important role that restrictions in food security are expected. However, Russia's suspension from the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) and from many intergovernmental regional fisheries management organisations will make sustainable management of shared resources very challenging in the near future.