Project
Baseline with market models
Many agri-food markets are hallmarked by dynamic expansions – some driven by changed demand concerning energy plants while others markets are withering. Will this development persist in future? Then we need to capture this developments for policy advisory work, to reflect its implications.
Background and Objective
Every second year, we generate projections of the situation on agri-food markets. Focal questions are which prices, supply, demand and trade will be relevant in 10 years time. We discuss results with Federal and State Ministries. To generate a baseline supports the political decision process by the availability of quantitative projections of future agri-food markets. There will be conclusions on topics of future developments and policy implications on global and EU agri-food markets. A baseline is not a forecast of the future but describes expected developments under current policies considering assumptions of future values of exogenous variables not covered in the system like e.g. poipulation. This baseline we will use as counterfactual scenario to simulate effects of alternative policies.
Approach
A baseline projects current relations between variables. Estimated and synthetic parameters are incorporated in the equilibrium models AGMEMOD and MAGNET. Exogenous variables like the population will be projected into the future based on assumptions. Here, we often use external sources. Those future values of assumptions and the parameters allow to derive expected future values concerning agri-food markets.
Data and Methods
The partial equilibrium model AGMEMOD represents important agri-food markets and their interactions of the EU Member States. It uses prices and quantities.
The general equilibrium model MAGNET covers all sectors globally. It reflects value flows.
Preliminary Results
Results will be used as input for studies commissed by the BMEL.
Newest Baseline: Haß M, Deblitz C, Freund F, Kreins P, Laquai V, Offermann F, Pelikan J, Sturm V, Wegmann J, Witte T de, Wüstemann F, Zinnbauer M (2022) Thünen-Baseline 2022 - 2032: Agrarökonomische Projektionen für Deutschland. Braunschweig: Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut, 126 p, Thünen Rep 100, DOI:10.3220/REP1667811151000
PDF Dokument
Links and Downloads
Thünen-Contact
Involved Thünen-Partners
- Freund, FlorianMA Institute of Market Analysis
- Kreins, PeterLV Institute of Rural Studies
- Laquai, VerenaMA Institute of Market Analysis
- Offermann, FrankBW Institute of Farm Economics
- Pelikan, JanineMA Institute of Market Analysis
- Sturm, ViktoriyaMA Institute of Market Analysis
- Wegmann, JohannesLV Institute of Rural Studies
- Zinnbauer, MaximilianLV Institute of Rural Studies
Publications to the project
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Haß M, Banse M, Eysholdt M, Gocht A, Laquai V, Offermann F, Pelikan J, Rieger J, Stepanyan D, Sturm V, Zinnbauer M (2024) Thünen-Baseline 2024 - 2034: Agrarökonomische Projektionen für Deutschland. Braunschweig: Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut, 97 p, Thünen Rep 117, DOI:10.3220/REP1728479310000
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Haß M, Deblitz C, Freund F, Kreins P, Laquai V, Offermann F, Pelikan J, Sturm V, Wegmann J, Witte T de, Wüstemann F, Zinnbauer M (2022) Thünen-Baseline 2022 - 2032: Agrarökonomische Projektionen für Deutschland. Braunschweig: Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut, 126 p, Thünen Rep 100, DOI:10.3220/REP1667811151000
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Haß M, Banse M, Deblitz C, Freund F, Geibel I, Gocht A, Kreins P, Laquai V, Offermann F, Osterburg B, Pelikan J, Rieger J, Rösemann C, Salamon P, Zinnbauer M, Zirngibl M-E (2020) Thünen-Baseline 2020 - 2030: Agrarökonomische Projektionen für Deutschland. Braunschweig: Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut, 146 p, Thünen Rep 82, DOI:10.3220/REP1601889632000
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Offermann F, Banse M, Freund F, Haß M, Kreins P, Laquai V, Osterburg B, Pelikan J, Rösemann C, Salamon P (2018) Thünen-Baseline 2017 - 2027: Agrarökonomische Projektionen für Deutschland. Braunschweig: Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut, 116 p, Thünen Rep 56, DOI:10.3220/REP1516952942000
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Offermann F, Deblitz C, Golla B, Gömann H, Haenel H-D, Kleinhanß W, Kreins P, Ledebur O von, Osterburg B, Pelikan J, Röder N, Rösemann C, Salamon P, Sanders J, Witte T de (2014) Thünen-Baseline 2013-2023: Agrarökonomische Projektionen für Deutschland. Braunschweig: Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut, 112 p, Thünen Rep 19, DOI:10.3220/REP_19_2014
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Offermann F, Deblitz C, Golla B, Gömann H, Haenel H-D, Kleinhanß W, Kreins P, Ledebur O von, Osterburg B, Pelikan J, Röder N, Rösemann C, Salamon P, Sanders J, Witte T de (2014) Thünen-Baseline 2013-2023: Agri-economic projections for Germany. Landbauforsch Appl Agric Forestry Res 64(1):1-16, DOI:10.3220/LBF_2014_1-16
https://literatur.thuenen.de/digbib_extern/bitv/dn053881.pdf
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Fellmann T, van Leeuwen M, Salamon P, Kok A, Boluk G (2013) EU enlargement to Turkey: potential effects on Turkey agricultural income and markets. Eurasian Econ Rev 2(2):1-16
