Background and Objective

The overall objective of TRIP at the Thünen Institute of Farm Economics is to support decision-making in agricultural, food and climate policy by improving the models that are used for comparative assessment of impacts and effects.

The specific objectives of TRIP at the Thünen Institute of Farm Economics are:

• To produce consistent quantity flows from the various production-to-consumption data sources that include food losses and waste, as well as food processing and international trade in processed foods.
• Further develop the CAPRI agro-economic equilibrium model by coupling the described quantity flows to the model. This will allow for a better analysis of the impact of studied scenarios on consumers.
• Translate impacts of policies on food consumption into impacts on the quantities of raw products going into human consumption and thereby on agricultural production.
• Develop and estimate a demand specification for final food products to directly model demand-side scenarios and their impacts on production.

Intended impacts:

• Improve the ability to model agricultural policies related to natural resources, food, and international trade.
• Improve policy design and impact assessments of policies, demand changes, or world market events.
• Strengthen interdisciplinary research and collaboration among research institutions in the field of nutrition.

Approach

A working group at the Thünen Institute for Farm Economics is working on TRIP:

• reviews possible sources of data and organizes data needed through collaborations, licenses, and data use agreements
• establishes consistency between the different data sets, e.g. by using econometric estimation models
• calculates test scenarios on production changes to test consistency in translating raw products into final food intake
• develops a demand specification for the consumption of food products
• calculates test scenarios on changes in food consumption to test the translation of food intake into raw products
• differentiates food consumption by groups of people (e.g., by age, income) to analyze policies or scenarios that affect different groups differently.

Data and Methods

Main data sources:

• FAO/BLE market balances and prices
• Consumption surveys
• Data on composition of processed foods and dishes
• Data on imports and exports of processed foods
• Data on food losses and waste

Methods:

• CAPRI model
• Linear Programming
• Econometric estimation models

Our Research Questions

• What effects do changes in agricultural production have on consumption in Germany?
• What effects do changes in the demand for food have on agricultural production?
• What is the climate effect of a shift in demand from animal to plant foods when considering the agricultural sector as a whole?