Markets for grains and oilseeds

Lead Institute MA Institute of Market Analysis

Long-term analysis of international grain and oilseed markets

What factors influence grain and oilseed markets? How have grain and oilseed markets developed and how could they develop in the future? Answers to these questions help to understand and explain markets. This is essential for policy makers, market participants and consumers to assess the effects of market interventions.

Background and Objective

We analyze markets for grains, oilseeds and their processed products. Of special interest is the development of production and demand as well as the formation of prices. Our focus is on the identification and quantification of factors influencing markets and their developments. We analyze global and macro-economic factors, for example population and income development, but also special regional impacts, for example the European Common Agricultural Policy (CAP).

Target Group

The target group includes stakeholders in the supply chain for grains and oilseeds (producers, traders, processors and consumers), food retailers and consumer organizations, science, public authorities and government.

Approach

Besides particular analysis, we are monitoring the markets on the national, European and international levels. For this, we use national and international statistics. We prepare reports on current market developments as well as studies concerning specific aspects, for example impacts of biofuel policies. The communication with market participants improves our market analysis further.

Data and Methods

We use various statistics and apply trend analysis, regression and qualitative market research methods. Further we apply our economic market models AGMEMOD and MAGNET for policy impact assessment.

Our Research Questions

What factors influence grain and oilseed markets and their processed products? How will these markets develop? To what extent do, for example, population growth, income and changes in diets influence these markets?

How do policy measures (for example biofuel policy, trade policy, the CAP) influence German and international markets?

What influences do changes in other regions of the world have on German and European markets?

Links and Downloads

The following markets are monitored and analyzed by the Thünen Institute besides the markets for grain and oilseeds:

Thünen-Contact

Dr. Verena Laquai

Telephone

+49 531 2570 2179

verena.laquai@thuenen.de

MA Institute of Market Analysis

Duration

Permanent task 1.2016 - 12.2025

Publications

0
Laquai V (2023) Long-term challenges in cereal and oilseed markets - case studies analyzed with model systems [online]. Göttingen: Georg-August-Univ, xxiii, 279 p, Göttingen, Univ, Fakultät für Agrarwissenschaften, Diss, 2022, zu finden in <http://dx.doi.org/10.53846/goediss-9711> [zitiert am 22.02.2023], DOI:10.53846/goediss-9711
https://literatur.thuenen.de/digbib_extern/dn066066.pdf
1
Wolf V, Dehoust J, Banse M (2018) World markets for cereal crops : global trends for production, consumption, trade and prices. In: Kaltschmitt M, Neuling U (eds) Biokerosene : status and prospects. Cham: Springer Nature Switzerland, pp 123-145, DOI:10.1007/978-3-662-53065-8_7
2
Wolf V, Haß M (2017) World markets for sugar and starch: status and prospects. In: Meyers RA (ed) Encyclopedia of sustainability science and technology. New York: Springer, pp 1-37, DOI:10.1007/978-1-4939-2493-6_997-1

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MA Market Analysis

Project