"Feelings of Being Left Behind" in Rural Areas?

Background and Objective

In the 2017 federal elections, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) was the first right-wing populist party to enter the German parliament. At the time, the AfD achieved a second vote result of 12.6%. In the 2021 federal election, it was re-elected to the Bundestag with 10.3%.

The AfD's youth organization and the now dissolved internal party group "Flügel" have for some time now been under observation by the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution as suspected right-wing extremists. Several of the party's state associations are also under observation by the constitution protection authorities as suspected cases of right-wing extremism and the Thuringian state association is considered to be "definitely right-wing extremist".

The AfD's electoral successes have been interpreted in the public debate as an indicator of dissatisfaction and also as an expression of "feelings of being left behind".

In the research project "Feelings of being left behind" in rural areas? we studied what the public understands by "being left behind"; whether the AfD is actually particularly successful in rural areas and how people in rural areas perceive and interpret the situation.

Approach

The project first analyzed the popular media debate on the "feelings of being left behind" in a qualitative discourse analysis and traced various media representations and perceptions of "being left behind".

Subsequently, the election results of the 2017 federal election were examined with regard to the connection between rurality and second vote shares for the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.

Following on from the results of the election analysis, ten different rural regions were selected, in each of which a group discussion was conducted. In the group discussions, general questions were asked about living conditions and (dis)satisfaction in rural areas as well as specific questions about the possible responsibilities of political actors.

Data and Methods

• Grounded Theory
• qualitative discourse analysis of newspaper articles
• quantitative analysis of electoral and structural data
• qualitative analysis of group discussions

Our Research Questions

1. What is meant by "being left behind" in popular media discourse?
2. Is the AfD really particularly successful in rural areas?
3. How do people in rural areas perceive the situation, how satisfied are they with life there, what dissatisfaction prevails and who do they blame for this?

Results

Three levels of meaning or narratives of "being left behind" were identified in the discourse analysis:

infrastructural: as a result of a thinning out of services of general interest
economic: as a result of unemployment or a region's less favorable economic situation
cultural: as a result of a change in social values towards cosmopolitan, modern attitudes.

All these narratives have in common that the so-called "left behind" feel that their fears and concerns are not being taken seriously by the ruling parties.

The results of the quantitative analysis of the election results of the 2017 Bundestag election show that the AfD achieved the highest election results in eastern Germany, particularly in more rural communities, while in western Germany these were at the same level in more rural and non-rural communities. In both western and eastern Germany, very rural municipalities usually had lower AfD election results in 2017 compared to the more rural municipalities. This changed in western Germany in 2021, when the AfD performed slightly better in very rural municipalities. As a result, the thesis that people in rural areas are more likely to vote for the AfD must be rejected in its generalized form. A differentiated analysis of rural areas is necessary.

The analysis of the group discussion showed that a high level of satisfaction with local living conditions prevails in structurally strong rural areas and that the AfD is less popular there despite a locally dominant right-wing conservative culture. Dissatisfaction in (rather) structurally weak rural areas only went hand in hand with high AfD election results when a right-wing conservative political culture dominated locally. The AfD was less popular in structurally weak areas, even if there was strong dissatisfaction with the infrastructure, if a left-liberal political culture prevailed locally.

Overall, an interweaving of infrastructural, cultural and economic factors could be seen in the population's perception and interpretation processes.

The simple equation that people in rural areas feel "left behind" does not work. For this reason, policies that rely solely on infrastructure measures to bring about a decline in right-wing populist and, in some cases, right-wing extremist tendencies do not appear very promising.

Links and Downloads

Project: Poverty and Social Integration in Rural Areas

Project: Stability and Acceptance of the Democratic System in Rural Areas