Long-term analysis of sugar markets

Background and Objective

The global sugar market is one of the most regulated agricultural markets. Many countries protect their sugar producers against foreign competitors by applying high import tariffs. At the same time these countries support domestic sugar production by subsidies, minimum prices and production quotas. But as all other agricultural markets the sugar market is being increasingly liberalized. The number of trade agreements which guarantee free market access between trading partners is increasing continuously and more and more countries reduce their domestic support policies. One example is the European Union which has recently abolished its production quota system. With the reduction of policy support measures market forces become more important. Simultaneously, sugar consumption is being increasingly discussed in the public. In the last years, scientists and politicians are intensively discussing measures to reduce sugar intake. Worldwide many countries  have already introduced taxes on heavily sugary products. 

Against this background the aim of the project is to build up a comprehensive database and to develop a basic understanding of the fundamental market interrelationships and long-term trends on the sugar market. Based on this information, we generate long-term market projections and assess the impact of policy measures. 

Target Group

Scientists, policymakers, producer and consumer organizations, business representatives, journalists.

Approach

Our analysis is based on a continuous monitoring of the sugar market. We collect long-term data series of the development of sugar prices and quantities as well as other dimensions, such as tariff rates. The results of our analysis are published in scientific journals, working papers and in specialized press. Moreover, results are presented at conferences and seminars and discussed with representatives from science, business and politics.

Data and Methods

For our analysis we use international and national statistics as well as market reports. Data from different sources are collected and merged into one data pool. This data pool is analyzed by descriptive statistics. Moreover, we use the collected data to build up and maintain the databases of our market models.

Our Research Questions

We answer various research questions as for example:

• How do prices and quantities of sugar develop?
• What are long-term trends on the sugar market and what factors influence these trends?
• How do changes in policy, as for example the end of the EU sugar quota system, influence prices and quantities on the sugar market?

Preliminary Results

Every year, the Thuenen-Institute publishes an overview article on the current situation of the global and EU sugar market (Haß 2018).. The paper contains for example TOP-10-lists of the largest sugar producers, consumers, exporters and importers as well as figures showing the development of EU and world markets prices. Moreover, the Thuenen-Institute publishes every two years a long-term projection of the development of the German agricultural market (Thuenen-Baseline) and the institute is also involved in the generation of agricultural market projections published every year by the European Commission. Furthermore, the economic consequences of the abolition of the EU production quota system for sugar and isoglucose have been analyzed in a project.

Links and Downloads

Within the framework of a project the Thuenen-Institute has analyzed the economic consequences of the abolition of the EU sugar quota system:

• Dossier: The end of the sugar quota and possible consequences

• Project: The European sugar market in transition. What happens when sugar quotas end in 2017?

You can find up-to-date information about the sugar market under the following links:

• Dossier: Key data on the sugar market (German only, Excel tables for download)

Further statistical information:

Germany:

• BMEL Statistical Yearbook
• BLE Statistics and Reports

European Union:

• EU Sugar Market Observatory
• Statistical Office of the European Union (EUROSTAT)
• EU medium-term outlook
• EU short-term outlook

World:

• USDA Production Supply and Distribution (PS&D)
• USDA Sugar and Sweeteners Yearbook Tables
• USDA Gain Reports
• FAO Statistics
• OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook
• UN Comtrade

Besides the sugar market following markets are monitored and analyzed by the Thuenen-Institute:

• Grain and oilseed market
• Milk and dairy market
• Meat market
• Bio-economy monitoring