Institute of

MA Market Analysis

Analysis of the Agricultural and Food Sector

How do agricultural markets function? How competitive is our agri-food economy in global competition? How can policies effectively influence agricultural markets? We analyze these issues in the work area "Analysis of the agricultural and food sector", in order to be able to provide purposeful advice to policymakers, economic actors and civil society.

The scope of our analyses ranges from the regional to the global level and comprise the markets for livestock and meat, milk and dairy products, as well as crops, oilseeds, sugar and renewable resources along the whole value chain.

Continuous observation of agri-food markets, effective processing of existing data and surveys of market participants form the basis of our expertise. Our toolbox includes time series analyses, forecast models, and regressions, amongst others. The obtained information enables us for instance to assess costs, prices and competitiveness in different markets. In this way, we can provide statements on the current market situation as well as on future developments.

Projects "Analysis of the Agricultural and Food Sector"

Ongoing projects

Accompanying research on the organization of deforestation-free supply chains

How can be ensured that the production of agricultural commodities is not linked to further deforestation? We analyze how deforestation-free supply chains are perceived by different market participants and how they can be actively shaped by policy.

Agriculture's share of consumer spending on selected food products

For more than 40 years, the Thünen Institute has been monitoring how agricultural revenues develop in relation to consumer expenditure on selected food products. The time series show that the agricultural value chain has changed structurally over time. For the meat markets we additionally calculate the ratio between producer and consumer prices, i.e. the market margin.

Analysis of livestock census for Germany

Developments in the pig and cattle markets as well as the markets of processed meat products are continually observed and studied. Issues are livestock, slaughter, trade, additional economic and political facts. Analysis results in forcasts of gross indigenous production in Germany for the next 18 month.

Baseline with market models

Many agri-food markets are hallmarked by dynamic expansions – some driven by changed demand concerning energy plants while others markets are withering. Will this development persist in future? Then we need to capture this developments for policy advisory work, to reflect its implications.

Changing agricultural policies - impact on markets

The next reform is just around the corner - that much is clear to anybody following agricultural policy in Germany and the EU. While some may groan in exasperation, these continuous adjustments reflect the extremely dynamic change of framework conditions and societal expectations that the agricultural sector is faced with.

Collaboration Initiative Food Loss and Waste

Since the establishment of the new Meeting of Agricultural Chief Scientists of G20 (MACS-G20) Food Loss and Waste Initiative in 2015, Germany took over leadership for further joint activities. First step was the establishment of an appropriate web portal with information about current research activities, latest innovations and available scientific expertise. In parallel, a kick-off workshop was organised and the position for a coordinator was established at Thünen-Institute of Market Analysis in June 2017 in order to facilitate international cooperation towards Food Loss and Waste Prevention.

Fairtrade 2.0

This project analyses coffee value chains in which the coffee processing and packaging takes primarily place in the producing African country and compares them to other coffee value chains.

Long-term analysis of international meat markets

Developments on the markets for poultry, pork, beef and processed meat products are monitored. Their implications for the national and EU-market as well as in context with policy measures at national and EU - level are discussed.

Long-term analysis of sugar markets

How do sugar prices develop? Which countries are the largest sugar producers? How much sugar do we consume? What factors influence the sugar market? These and other questions are regularly analyzed by the Thuenen-Institute.

Markets for grain and oilseeds

What factors influence grain and oilseed markets? How have grain and oilseed markets developed and how could they develop in the future? Answers to these questions help to understand and explain markets. This is essential for policy makers, market participants and consumers to assess the effects of market interventions.

Monitoring of the implementation of the Pact Against Food Waste in the wholesale and retail sector

In Germany, and also worldwide, there is an increased interest in plant-based diets. The sustainability of these plant-based diets, as compared to omnivore diets, is being investigated within the subproject “sustainability analysis” of the COPLANT project (Cohort-Study on Plant-based Diets).

Our market models - established and new combined

EU agricultural policies as well as international trade policies have changed considerably during the last decades. This has led to an increased demand from policy makers and scientists for model-based quantitative assessments of the consequences of respective policy reforms.

Sustainability assessment of plant-based diets

Finished projects

Bio-economy Monitoring

Food security, climate protection, biodiversity as well as supply of bio materials and renewable energy pose significantly challenges to our economy. But even the question of the actual state of bio-economy in Germany could not satisfactorily be answered. Not only the knowledge about the paths of bio-based material is lacking but also detailed data does often not exist. Thus, an assessment of the bio based economy is not possible.

Brightspace

The European Green Deal, aims, among others, to increase the contribution of EU agriculture to climate change action, improve the management of natural resources, ensure a fair economic return for farmers, and reinforce the protection of biodiversity. EU agriculture and food practices are currently not on the right track to meet the Green Deal ambitions and objectives. These objectives are interdependent, and while often aligned, they may also compete. Synergies and trade-offs between socio-economic and environmental outcomes are brought together in the concept of a Safe and Just Operating ...

Capacity Building towards Food Security

Food security exists when all people at all times have access to sufficient and nutritious food to ensure an active and healthy life. At present, for a large proportion of the world population this is not the case. Even though the number of people suffering hunger has been reduced to the half since 1995, still there are more than 2 Billion people worldwide suffering from micronutrient deficiencies. Most of these people live in developing countries.

CO2 footprints in the food chain

Our current agri-food system holds responsible to a large extent for exceeding several planetary boundaries. A shift to more sustainable diets is therefore urgently needed. In the project, we investigate how product labelling should be methodically implemented in order to support this change.

Dairy markets - quo vadis?

How do the milk markets develop? What influence do political and economic factors have on the supply and the demand of milk and dairy products? What are the driving factors in domestic and international trade in dairy products?

Do free trade agreements encourage agricultural production in Eastern Europe?

Possible changes in tariff and trade policies of the EU with its eastern neighbors as well as trade between these countries change trade flows. How does this influence the agricultural sector?

Efficient reduction of food waste in primary production

The food value chain starts with primary production. In 2015, 1.36 million tons of food waste were generated there in Germany, only at this level. We want to support the primary production to reduce their food waste.

Efficient reduction of food waste in the processing sector

Efficient reduction of food waste in wholesale and retail trade

Nearly 500,000 tons of food waste were generated in the German wholesale and retail trade in 2015. According to the Federal Government's National Strategy for Food Waste Reduction, total food waste is to be halved by 2030. In order to achieve this goal, all players in the supply chain and consumers are required to act.

Enhancing Soil health through Values-based business models

Evaluation of support of food industries

Evaluation of usage, results and impacts of the measure according to the guidlines under COUNCIL REGULATION (EC) No 1698/2005 of 20 September 2005 on support for rural development by the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (EAFRD) of the EU Commission respectively. (Official Journal of the European Union L 277, 21 October 2005, pp. 1-40.)

Fewer Soy Imports to Germany?

Germany's dependence on soy imports, especially from Brazil, is increasingly viewed with scepticism by many parts of the society. We are investigating whether and how imports can be reduced and how this affects the markets in Germany and the exporting countries.

Focus on School Milk

Less and less pupils consume school milk - although school milk products are subsidized. Is the image of milk deterrent? Do not people know about its importance to health or do they disagree? Or is school milk still too expensive? The project "Focus on School Milk" analyses school milk along the supply chain, from the dairy industry to the pupil. The Thünen-Institut of Market Analysis explores, in cooperation with the Max Rubner-Institut reason for the decline in demand and provides advice to improve te system.

Food losses at the producer-retailer interface - causes and options for action

The United Nations, the EU and Germany are pursuing the goal of being less wasteful with food. But what options are available to achieve this goal?

How much food labelling is necessary?

Based on current EU regulations there is no requirement for labeling food produced from animals which are fed with genetically modified feed. The government plans to expand the existing labeling requirements to these food group.

How prices are determined?

How national and international prices for agricultural goods and processed products are determined? What influence do producers, processors, traders and consumers have?

Is the Commodity Future Market suitable for Hedging the Price Risk in Dairy Markets?

Volatile dairy prices and recurring market cirsis are a new important challenge for the sector. Up-to-date market signals could help in early understanding of future market developments.

Modelling of the Common Agricultural Policies post 2027

Agricultural policies are changing and, consequently, the tools to analyse these policies need to be adapted. Therefore, this research projects aims to adjust the European Commission’s IMAP (Integrated modelling platform for agro-economic and resource policy analysis) models, i.e., CAPRI, MAGNET, AGMEMOD, as well as GLOBIOM for future policy impact assessments with a focus on the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) after 2027 and their economic, social (including health), environmental and climate sustainability impacts.

Pathways to reduce food waste (REFOWAS)

The production and consumption of food has an impact on the environment. In this context we question the importance of food waste. To analyse this, we quantify the agricultural and food sectors along the entire value creation chain. Food waste can often be avoided with relative ease. In different case studies we study the main points and reasons for the creation of waste and study different way to reduce them.

Perspectives of German animal welfare meat on export markets

Animal husbandry is increasingly criticized in Germany and voices become louder to adjust legal requirements for animal husbandry in order to improve farm animal welfare. Higher legal requirements for animal welfare would imply higher production costs with the consequence of loss of international competitiveness of German meat producers.Code of Practice for organic food processing

Pricing in dairy markets: who dictates and who reacts?

The world is global – and the milk market too. What happens in Germany, if a "milk can" tips over in New Zealand? How are producer prices and how are price for consumers determined?

Quality requirements and food loss in fruit and vegetables

Specific quality requirements and standards put forward by food retailing companies for fruit and vegetables are regarded as one cause of food loss in the upstream supply chain. In this case study we investigate the interdependencies and aim to quantify such losses in one retailer’s supply chain.

Reduce food waste in commercial kitchens (ELoFoS)

Primary production, processing, transport, storage and preparation of food affect the environment. Less food waste can reduce environmental load. We analyse prevention strategies.

Regional marketing of milk

Is regional marketing a suitable instrument for milk producers to become independent of volatile milk prices? We investigate the success factors of regional marketing of milk and dairy products.

Report module Agriculture and Environment in the Total Environmental Economic Accounts

The total environmental economic account (UGR) of the Federal Statistics Office (Destatis) is a calculation on the basis of various statistics. It shows the interaction between business and nature. The goal of our project is to calculate the resource requirements for agricultural production, for example, energy use and pollution and CO2 emissions can be calculated, both for all of German agriculture as well as for each production unit, thus, for example, the ´product carbon footprint´ (Greenhouse gas footprint of products) in kg CO2 emissions per kg product.

The European sugar market in transition. What happens when sugar quotas end in 2017?

The European sugar sector faces a difficult time in the coming years. From 1 October 2017, sugar beet growers and the sugar industry will lose their long-term planning security regarding production quantities and prices. How will the market react to these changing conditions? And who will be the winners and losers of the resulting market reactions?

The use of Biomass in Germany

Biomass can be used for the production of food and feed, bioenergy and for material use. The decision how biomass is finally used, depends substantially on (inter) national economic and political conditions. Currently the political support of bioenergy production and the resulting competition with alternative uses of biomass are in the focus of public discussions in Germany. The positions in this issue are manifold and complex. Depending on the political or economic perspective, they include, climate and environmental protection aspects, efficiency criteria of the different lines of energy, ...

Trends of dairy markets - reaching new shores

What happens to the dairy markets? How is milk produced in Germany and how prices do evolve? How do other important regions affect price formation on world markets?

What food waste is generated in German households?

In Germany, half of all food waste occurs in private households. In order to reduce this amount in the long term, precise knowledge of the amount, causes and composition of waste is essential.

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